Heavyweight Contenders:

1. Florida Gators - SEC Autobid: Florida retained big men Micah Handlogten, Rueben Chinyelu, Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, who were the top four front court players in terms of minutes in Florida’s 2024 national championship run. The key to the Gators’ season was rebuilding a backcourt that lost Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard, Alijah Martin and Denzel Aberdeen, and they did about as well as they could have. Florida added Ohio transfer AJ Brown (13.2 PTS on 38% 3PT), Arkansas transfer Boogie Fland (13.5 PTS, 5.1 AST and 3.2 REB), Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee (16.9 PTS, 6.1 REB and 5.5 AST) and top-30 rated freshman CJ Ingram to fill those four voids. It’s not automatic that those four will perfectly replicate the production of the core four guards last year, but they certainly have the potential to. With arguably the best frontcourt in the country returning to anchor its roster, if Florida can get anywhere near last year’s guard production, they are going to make another run at a championship.

 

2. Houston Cougars - Big 12 Autobid: Houston was only a few points away from winning its first national championship last year (the Cougars are 0-3 in their three championship game appearances), and the Cougars reloaded their roster in quick succession. The Cougars are losing L.J. Cryer, J’wan Roberts and Terrance Arceneaux, but Houston is bringing in three of its four highest rated recruits not just in recent history, but of all-time this year to replace those three. 6’10 forward Chris Cenac Jr. (247sports’ No. 6 recruit), 6’6 guard Isaiah Harwell (247sports’ No. 13 recruit) and 6’3 guard Kingston Flemings (247sports’ No. 16 recruit) will slide almost directly into the roles Cryer, Roberts and Arceneaux played last year. Meanwhile, Milos Uzan, Joseph Tugler and Emanuel Sharp will return from last year’s runner-up squad to give the Cougars a great mix of returning leadership and firepower and exciting new talent. While Kelvin Sampson will be entering new territory playing with such a young roster, you could easily make the argument this is Sampson’s most talented Houston squad in his time at the helm for the Cougars. If the top-three freshmen in the class can successfully fit into the Houston culture, the Cougars will dominate the Big 12 once again this season.

 

3. Purdue Boilermakers - Big Ten Autobid: While Florida returned half of its championship roster, and added the remaining half of an amazing rotation, Purdue focused on player retainment, and additions on the margins of its roster. Preseason Player of the Year favorite Braden Smith (15.8 PTS, 8.7 AST, 4.5 REB) and his pick-and-roll partner Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.1 PTS, 6.5 REB, 2.2 AST) are joined by Fletcher Loyer (13.8 PTS) and a whole host of lesser-known contributors on the wing like C.J. Cox and Myles Colvin to form an elite core of returning players. But the Boilermakers’ roster goes from great (they were a four seed in the NCAA Tournament last year) to elite with added production coming from South Dakota State transfer forward Oscar Cluff (17.6 PTS on 63.4% FG, 12.3 REB and 2.8 AST) and 7’4 center Daniel Jacobsen, who started Purdue’s season-opener and contributed 13 points, seven rebounds and three blocks before suffering a season-ending injury in the Boilermakers’ second game. That mix of amazing returners and new pieces of the team (without even mentioning freshmen Omer Mayer, Liam Murphy or Antoine West Jr.) should lead Purdue to a return to dominance atop the Big Ten.

 

4. UConn Huskies - Big East Autobid: UConn had a bit of a down year last year after winning two straight national championships, but it looks like Hurley’s Huskies are primed for a bounce-back season. Super senior Alex Karaban (14.3 PTS, 5.3 REB, 2.8 AST) is back to lead the charge for UConn once again and is joined by Solo Ball (14.4 PTS on 41.4% 3PT, 3.6 REB) and Tarris Reed Jr. (9.6 PTS, 7.3 REB, 1.6 BLK) to form a big three of returners. Depth pieces from last year, Jaylin Stewart (17.9 MIN) and Jayden Ross (11.4 MIN), will also return, although they might play similar roles off the bench due to a stellar Husky haul of new players. Most notably, UConn will be adding a trio of guards – freshman Braylon Mullins (247sports’ No. 15 recruit), and transfers Malachi Smith (10.4 PTS, 5.3 AST, 2.9 REB at Dayton in ‘24-25) and Silas Demary Jr. (13.5 PTS, 3.9 REB, 3.1 AST at Georgia in ‘24-25). The starting lineup will likely include Smith, Demary Jr. and Ball as guards with Karaban and Reed Jr. in the frontcourt. The keys to UConn’s season will be a good amount of natural growth from UConn’s returning depth pieces and a good freshman season from Mullins and other freshmen in UConn’s top-11 class. Hit on those two keys and Hurley’s bunch will be a tough out in the Big East.

 

5. Michigan Wolverines - Big Ten at-large: After a first year in Ann Arbor that included a Big Ten Tournament Championship and Sweet Sixteen appearance, Dusty May has built an even stronger version of the Wolverines. Most coaches see at least some improvement from year one to year two at any school, and those coaches don’t often add a star like Yaxel Lendeborg (the No. 1 rated transfer who averaged 17.7 PTS, 11.4 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.8 BLK, 1.7 STL at UAB in ‘24-25) to their roster. Lendeborg is the headliner of Michigan’s haul, but the Wolverines have the 2nd-ranked overall transfer portal class, with three major conference transfers – Morez Johnson Jr. (7.0 PTS, 6.7 REB, 1.1 BLK in 17.7 MIN at Illinois in ‘24-25), Elliot Cadeau (9.4 PTS, 6.2 AST, 2.9 REB at North Carolina in ‘24-25) and Aday Mara (6.4 PTS, 4.0 REB, 1.6 BLK in 13.0 MIN at UCLA in ‘24-25) – also transferring in to bolster the squad. Michigan Mr. Basketball (and No. 18 recruit) Trey McKenney is the top-ranked freshman in the Wolverines’ class, and he is joined by German big man Malick Kordel, top-100 recruit Winters Grady, and three-star Patrick Liburd. Will Tschetter (6.4 PTS, 2.4 REB, 35.1% 3PT), Nimari Burnett (9.4 PTS, 3.5 REB, 1.5 AST, 40.0% 3PT) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (9.8 PTS, 3.4 REB, 2.2 AST) are the most experienced returners, while redshirt freshman Oscar Goodman and true sophomore L.J. Cason (4.3 PTS, 1.4 REB, 1.0 AST in 11.8 MIN) should be ready to step into bigger roles with the Wolverines as well to create a true contender to challenge Purdue atop the Big Ten.

 

6. Louisville Cardinals - ACC autobid: Despite ranking third in the country, Louisville’s transfer trio – made up of Ryan Conwell, who has averaged more than 16.5 points, 1.1 steals, 2.5 assists on at least 45/40/82 shooting splits for two straight years (at Indiana State in ‘23-24 and Xavier in ‘24-25), Adrian Wooley (18.8 PTS on 51% FG and 42% 3PT shooting, 5.2 REB, 3.6 AST as a freshman at Kennesaw State in ‘24-25) and Isaac McKneeley (14.4 PTS on 42.1% 3PT shooting, 2.9 AST, 2.7 REB at Virginia in ‘24-25) – is easily the best transfer class in terms of quality players in the country. Louisville also went the international route to grab three frontcourt players: Sananda Fru, Mouhamed Camara and Vangelis Zougris. But perhaps the player that will make or break the Cardinals’ season is Mikel Brown Jr., the 2nd-ranked point guard recruit in the country, and 6th-ranked overall player, who has received a significant amount of buzz throughout the summer and could run the show for an already amazing Cardinals’ backcourt by the end of the season. The three transfers and four freshmen are joined by key returners J’Vonne Hadley (12.2 PTS, 7.3 REB, 1.8 AST in ‘24-25), Kasean Pryor (12.0 PTS, 6.1 REB, 2.1 AST in 7 games in ‘24-25) and Khani Rooths (3.3 PTS, 3.0 REB as a true freshman in ‘24-25). Then there are players like Kobe Rodgers and Aly Khalifa who had to sit out a year after transferring to Louisville before last season that should make an impact as well. The bottom line is this: the Cardinals have a ridiculously loaded roster in terms of talent, and if Pat Kelsey can build any semblance of chemistry early in the season, Louisville will hit the ground running and won’t be challenged by anyone other than Duke in the ACC.

 

7. Kentucky Wildcats - SEC at-large: Led by Oklahoma transfer and eventual All-SEC Second Teamer Otega Oweh, Mark Pope’s first year at the helm in Lexington was a great one, as a Wildcats roster decimated by transfers and decommitting recruits following John Calipari to Arkansas still reached the Sweet Sixteen. But in typical Kentucky basketball fashion, expectations for year two of the Pope era are sky high, and the roster is ready to meet those expectations. Kentucky has both a top-seven transfer class and freshman class this year who will join the aforementioned do-it-all guard Oweh (16.2 PTS, 4.7 REB, 1.7 AST, 1.6 STL) and frontcourt returner Brandon Garrison (5.9 PTS, 3.9 REB, 1.9 AST). The freshman class features a bit of everything, with two top-25 recruits, namely combo guard Jasper Johnson (No. 21 recruit) and 6’11 center Malachi Moreno (No. 25 recruit), as well as 6’8 forward Braydon Hawthorne (four star), as well as Croatian native 6’11 power forward Andrija Jelavić. While the freshman class is solid across the board, the transfer class is even more exciting. Former Alabama big Mouhamed Dioubate (7.2 PTS on 46.2% 3PT, 5.9 REB in 16.0 MIN) and former Florida guard Denzel Aberdeen (7.7 PTS, 1.7 REB, 1.4 AST) join as experienced options from Kentucky’s SEC competition. 2024 top-ten overall recruit Jayden Quaintance (9.4 PTS, 7.9 REB, 2.6 BLK, 1.5 AST) transfers in from Arizona State after an amazing frontcourt season. Jaland Lowe (16.8 PTS, 5.5 AST, 4.2 REB, 1.8 STL) was named to All-ACC Third Team after a great season at Pitt and will be the prolific scorer complimenting Oweh in the backcourt. Last, but not least, mid-major transfers Kam Williams (9.3 PTS on 41.2% 3PT, 4.5 REB, 1.3 AST, 1.1 BLK, 1.4 STL at Tulane) and Reece Potter (6.5 PTS, 3.7 REB in 17.1 MIN at Miami-Ohio) add even more depth to an already loaded roster. If the many puzzle pieces can all fit together, Kentucky is in for an incredible season.

 

8. St. John’s Red Storm - Big East at-large: Speaking of massive transfer portal hauls, the team that took the award of highest-rated portal class was St. John’s. The Red Storm brought in quantity and quality, and despite losing Brady Dunlap, Jaiden Glover, Vincent Iwuchukwu, Khaman Maker and Simeon Wilcher to the transfer portal, along with RJ Luis Jr. to the NBA Draft, the Red Storm are somehow gaining production from the portal, rather than losing it. Bryce Hopkins was an All-Big East First Teamer during the 2022-23 season at Providence, averaging 15.8 points and 8.5 rebounds that year. He joins team captain Zuby Ejiofor (14.7 PTS, 8.1 REB, 1.4 BLK), who was an All-Big East First Team selection last season, to create one of the best big man duos in the country. Milligan College transfer Handje Tamba and Cincinnati (and former Texas) transfer Dillon Mitchell (9.9 PTS, 6.9 REB, 1.4 STL), along with returner Ruben Prey will add depth to that formidable frontcourt, and the backcourt additions are just as plentiful for the Johnnies. Three power four guard transfers join the fray, including Ian Jackson, a top-10 recruit last year who averaged 11.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 0.9 assists at North Carolina as a freshman, Stanford transfer Oziyah Sellers (13.7 PTS on 40.1% 3PT, 2.8 REB, 1.3 AST) and Arizona State transfer Joson Sanon, a top-25 recruit last year who averaged 11.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.0 assist as a freshman. The wildcard of the bunch is Idaho State transfer Dylan Darling (19.8 PTS, 5.7 AST, 3.4 REB), who scored in heavy volume last year, but without great efficiency. Sophomore Lefteris Liotopoulos, four-star freshman Kelvin Odih as well as international recruits Fotis Konstantinidis, Casper Pohto and Imran Suljanovic will also play a role in the Red Storm rotation this winter. All things considered, this team probably has the most moving parts and variability among any of the teams I have in the “Heavyweight Contenders” category, but with Rick Pitino steering the ship, it’s safer to bet that the Johnnies will near their highest potential than thinking they will crash and burn.

 

9. Duke Blue Devils - ACC at-large: As always, Duke had the best freshman class in 2024 that led the Blue Devils to a 19-1 record against the ACC and eventually went all the way to the Final Four. But all that talent also led to a mass exodus of players, as Duke will replace its top five scorers, who combined for 63.2 PPG last season. It’s a tall task, but Duke’s 2025 freshman class is ranked atop all of college basketball once again, even if the separation from the rest of the pack isn’t as large as it was last year. Duke’s class is headlined by the Boozer twins – Cameron, ranked No. 3 in the country, and Cayden, ranked No. 23 in the country – as well as Nikolas Khamenia, the No. 15 recruit, Sebastian Wilkins, the No. 47 recruit, and Dame Sarr, an international recruit from Italy. The freshmen probably won’t produce as much as the stellar ‘24-25 trio of Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach did, but Duke’s returners this year should take a step forward to fill in that void. Isaiah Evans (6.8 PTS, 41.6% 3PT in 13.7 MIN) was electric in limited minutes last season, while Caleb Foster (4.9 PTS, 34.2% 3PT in 14.0 MIN), Patrick Ngongba II (3.9 PTS, 2.7 REB in 10,6 MIN) and Maliq Brown (2.5 PTS, 3.7 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.3 STL in 15.7 MIN) were all very reliable options off the bench last year. If those four are just steady contributors and the ‘25 freshmen don’t surpass the high bar from the ‘24 freshmen, Duke won’t reach the heights it did last season, but the Blue Devils will still be extremely competitive at the top of the ACC with production from both groups.

 

10. Arizona Wildcats - Big 12 at-large: Arizona followed the Duke method in the offseason by valuing splashy freshman additions rather than the higher-floor, lower-potential transfer portal options. The Wildcats only brought in Harvard transfer Evan Nelson (9.1 PTS on 40.4% 3PT, 3.0 REB, 2.9 AST, 1.4 STL), but Arizona pushed hard enough on the high school recruiting front to land the No. 2 recruiting class, barely trailing the Blue Devils. Arizona is one of three teams (Houston and Duke are the other two) to sign three five-stars in this cycle. Guard Brayden Burries (No. 10 overall), and versatile forwards Koa Peat (No. 9 overall) and Dwayne Aristode (No. 24 overall) are the big three of the freshman class, while Bryce James and Mabil Mawut will be longer-term projects unlikely to make impacts this season. Tommy Lloyd made multiple additions on the international front once again, nabbing 6’11 big man Sidi Gueye, who played professionally for Real Madrid, and Ivan Kharchenkov, who was playing for Bayern Munich in Germany. However, even with seven freshman additions, the most important group for Arizona will be the returning players. Jaden Bradley (12.1 PTS, 3.7 AST, 3.4 REB, 1.8 STL), Anthony Dell’Orso (7.2 PTS on 41.4% 3PT, 1.4 REB, 1.4 AST in 17.0 MIN), Tobe Awaka (8.0 PTS, 7.8 REB in 19.5 MIN) and Motiejus Krivas (7.9 PTS, 4.5 REB in 8 games) will need to match and likely exceed their production from last year if Arizona wants to compete for a Big 12 championship. Simply looking at it from a math perspective, Caleb Love, KJ Lewis, Henri Veesar, Tommy Townsend and Carter Bryant combined for 52.1 points per game last season, and all five are leaving the program before the 2025-26 season. Burries, Peat and Aristode should help bridge that gap, but Bradley and Dell’Orso will both need to stay efficient within higher volume and responsibilities in the Arizona offense this season.

 

11. BYU Cougars - Big 12 at-large: BYU was an incredibly balanced team last year, with nine players averaging at least 5.9 points per game, but only two players – Richie Saunders (16.5 PTS) and Egor Demin (10.6 PTS) – averaged double-digit scoring. Out of those nine important players, only three are returning. Leading scorer Richie Saunders is joined by Keba Keita (7.4 PTS, 7.9 REB) and Dawson Baker (7.5 PTS on 38.0% 3PT) to anchor the returning core for the Cougars, but where BYU’s roster really comes together is with new additions, from both high school recruiting and the transfer portal. Of the big three recruits, Darryn Peterson (Kansas) and Cameron Boozer (Duke) went to more typical schools for players with a ton of hype, but the nation’s No. 1 recruit, AJ Dybantsa, chose to make his name known in Provo. He is joined by top-35 recruit Xavion Staton and four-star Chamberlain Burgess, who will both make contributions to BYU’s frontcourt this season and in the future, to make up a solid freshman class, but Dybantsa isn’t the only big-name addition. Enter former Baylor point guard Rob Wright III. Wright III (11.5 PTS, 4.2 AST, 2.1 REB) entered college basketball as a highly-touted prospect, and made an immediate impact in Waco as a freshman. If he can make a typical sophomore leap, he will be even more impactful than Demin was last year while running the show for BYU. Although Dybantsa, Wright III and Saunders will likely eliminate the evenly distributed production from a plethora of veterans last year, that Big Three supported by Keita, Baker, Staton and Burgess plus four additional transfers will make the Cougars lethal once again.

 

Lightweight Contenders:

12. Alabama Crimson Tide - SEC at-large: Losing top two scorers Mark Sears and Grant Nelson is going to be a problem for Alabama. Losing depth pieces like Chris Youngblood, Cliff Omoruyi, Mouhamed Dioubate, Derrion Reid and Jarin Stevenson hurts too. But the Crimson Tide’s injury woes last season have actually helped them build a competitive roster this season. Both Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and Houston Mallette return for one more season, and are joined in the backcourt by fellow returners Labaron Philon Jr. and Aden Holloway, as well as high four-star combo guard Davion Hannah and Miami transfer Jalil Bethea (a top-ten recruit as a freshman last year). The frontcourt is a less secure situation with transfers Noah Williamson, Taylor Bol Bowen and Keitenn Bristow serving as experienced options, while the Tide hope Aiden Sherrell can make a big sophomore leap. At least one of three four-star freshmen bigs London Jemison, Amari Allen and Collins Onyejiaka will have to be impactful as well for Alabama to stay near the top of the SEC this season.

 

13. Illinois Fighting Illini - Big Ten at-large: Illinois has shown the ability to reload after losing a ton of players in the past, but this year there are plenty of returning players to soften the blow of losing Morez Johnson Jr., Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn and Tre White to the portal and both Will Riley and Kasparas Jakucionis to the draft. The Fighting Illini did keep Tomislav Ivisic (arguably their best player last year), Kylan Boswell, Ben Humrichous and Jake Davis from last year’s roster, and re-integrating Ty Rodgers into the fold shouldn’t be a big challenge. Add in Tomislav’s brother Zvonimir who is transferring from Arkansas, as well as prolific scorer Andrej Stojakovic from Cal, and four solid freshmen and you have a roster that probably won’t compete for a Big Ten championship, but will be somewhere around the top five of the conference.

 

14. Arkansas Razorbacks - SEC at-large: Arkansas is going to get production from a wide variety of sources this season. Florida State transfer Malique Ewin and South Carolina transfer Nick Pringle are both high-quality big men who will immediately make an impact for the Razorbacks playing alongside Trevon Brazile. Ewin and Pringle are the only two transfers on this Arkansas roster, but coach Calipari (predictably) went heavy on freshman recruiting. Notably, the Razorbacks are adding five-star guards Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, who will help returners D.J. Wagner, Billy Richmond III and Karter Knox anchor one of the best backcourts in the country. Arkansas has the talent to match up with almost any team in the country, and if the Razorbacks get solid contributions from their bench, they will be a top-five team in the SEC this season. This roster has enough continuity from last season to have a very high floor, but the infusion of talent from high school and the transfer portal also gives the Razorbacks one of the highest ceilings in the country as well.

 

15. Iowa State Cyclones - Big 12 at-large: The Cyclones will take a massive hit to their scoring prowess due to the departures of Curtis Jones (17.4 PTS, 2.3 AST) and Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PTS, 4.1 AST), but Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson returning means that Iowa State is retaining three players who averaged double-digit scoring output last season. In addition to those three, the Cyclones are integrating four freshmen (big men Xzavion Mitchell and Dominykas Pleta and guards Jamarion Batemon and Killyan Toure) and four transfers (Utah Valley transfer Dominick Nelson, Virginia transfer Blake Buchanan, Eastern Washington transfer Mason Williams, and Purdue Fort Wayne transfer Eric Mulder) into the roster this season. T.J. Otzelberger’s group will lean on its defense once again, but Nelson and Williams, along with higher offensive volume from Mocilovic and Lipsey, will provide enough scoring to make this roster a tough out in the Big 12 again.

 

16. UCLA Bruins - Big Ten at-large: UCLA has one thing that most teams don’t have: three of its top four scorers from last season (Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark) are returning. The Bruins also added 2024-25 MWC Player of the Year Donovan Dent (20.4 PTS, 6.4 AST, 2.3 REB, 1.4 STL) in the transfer portal to give a much needed boost to a struggling offense. UCLA also utilized the transfer portal to add UMKC transfer Jamar Brown, Michigan State transfer Xavier Booker, San Diego transfer Steven Jamerson II and NC Central transfer Anthony Peoples Jr. The Bruins were anchored by experience and defense last year, and considering they only added one freshman to the roster (Markell Alston), it seems like we’ll be seeing more of the same in Westwood. The Bruins will be good enough to beat anyone in the Big Ten this year, as long as the new additions can gel on the defensive end.

 

17. NC State Wolfpack - ACC at-large: The Wolfpack are an experiment in how well a large infusion of talent and new coaching can mesh together to make up a cohesive team. Five-star freshman Matt Able and four-star freshman Zymicah Wilkins, as well as international prospect Jayme Kontuniemi are Will Wade’s first three recruits at his newest destination, but he brought some familiar faces from McNeese State as well. The Cowboys were very experienced last year, but Quadir Copeland and Alyn Breed both had eligibility to spare and chose to follow Wade to Raleigh. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are adding a plethora of important major-conference contributors from last season through the transfer portal, with Michigan State point guard Tre Holloman, Florida State power forward Jerry Deng, North Carolina big man Ven-Allen Lubin and Houston wing Terrance Arceneaux joining Texas Tech power forward and ACC Preseason Player of the Year, Darrion Williams. While many teams are relying on mid-major players to make the jump and adjust to major-conference basketball, NC State has six transfers who played in the NCAA Tournament last season, as well as a talented freshman class and a few extra transfers to add more depth. This roster may struggle early with chemistry but by the end of the season, everyone will be looking out for Will Wade’s Wolfpack.

 

18. Texas Tech Red Raiders - Big 12 at-large: The Red Raiders check in firmly inside of my top 20, but behind some of the national expectations set for their group. Most importantly, Texas Tech went to the Elite Eight last year and retained Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin and Christian Anderson (10.6 PTS, 3.0 REB, 2.2 AST), who is due for a big sophomore leap. But outside of those two, the Red Raiders had to replace every part of their roster. The aforementioned Darrion Williams was the most important and surprising departure of the bunch, and took Texas Tech from a likely top-ten team to somewhere in the 15-20 range instead. But what keeps Texas Tech in a great position again are five great transfers, namely former VCU big Luke Bamgboye, former Villanova big Josiah Moseley, former Washington State guard LeJuan Watts, former UNC-Greensboro guard Donovan Atwell and former Santa Clara guard Tyeree Bryan. With Toppin anchoring the frontcourt and Anderson anchoring the backcourt, those five should integrate seamlessly to create another high-powered Red Raiders offense this season.

 

19. Michigan State Spartans - Big Ten at-large: The Spartans are dealing with the loss of Jase Richardson to the NBA Draft, the surprise departure of Tre Holloman to NC State, Xavier Booker’s transfer to UCLA, and the graduations of Frankie Fidler, Szymon Zapala and most importantly, Jaden Akins. But Michigan State is as consistent as any program in college basketball. Richardson, Holloman and Akins were extremely important to last year’s roster, but Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and Jeremy Fears Jr. are ready to take necessary leaps to lead this Spartans squad to a successful season. Kur Teng took a backseat as a freshman, but he will have to contribute to push Michigan State to its ceiling. Tom Izzo’s bunch also added two high four-star freshmen, Cam Ward and Jordan Scott, as well as turning to the transfer portal to add Miami’s Divine Ugochukwu, Samford’s Trey Fort and FAU’s Kaleb Glenn. Those five new additions, along with a good core of returners, should make this season another good one in East Lansing.

 

20. Tennessee Volunteers - SEC at-large: This team has wildly different projections depending on what source you look at. Kenpom has the Vols at No. 9, Bart Torvik has them at No. 13, the AP Poll has them at No. 18, and finally, they land at No. 20 on my rankings. I think Tennessee has a higher ceiling than a few of the teams ranked ahead of them, but there are so many pieces moving around with this team that it’s hard for me to rank them any higher. Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie will do an amazing job at filling the void left by Zakai Zeigler’s departure, and Louisiana Tech transfer Amaree Abram and Vanderbilt transfer Jaylen Carey are both dependable options who should help get rid of some of Tennessee’s scoring deficiencies. But the Volunteers have to replace Zeigler, Chaz Lanier, Jordan Gainey, Igor Milicic Jr. and Jahmai Mashack. Gillespie, Abram and Carey will help, but Tennessee will essentially be relying on a massive leap from Bishop Boswell (who played less than four minutes per game last year), solid seasons from Felix Okpara, J.P, Estrella, and Cade Phillips and five freshmen to replace more than 50 points per game. The freshman class is very talented, though, and if Nate Ament and Amari Evans can both average well into double-figure scoring this year, Tennessee won’t have as many issues as I am projecting they will have.

 

21. Auburn Tigers - SEC at-large: The Tigers were a few spots higher before the surprise announcement of Bruce Pearl’s retirement. Auburn had an amazing season last year, but virtually everyone is gone. As great as his freshman season was, Tahaad Pettiford will have to completely reset before this season as he will play with ten new additions to the Tigers roster. Auburn added a solid freshman class, headlined by Serbian recruit Filip Jovic, Sebastian Williams-Adams and Kaden Magwood. Abdul Bashir and Emeka Opurum are two of the top three JUCO transfers in the country. Mississippi State transfer KeShawn Murphy, UCF transfer Keyshawn Hall, Texas Tech transfer Kevin Overton and Lincoln Memorial University transfer Elyjah Freeman are all going to give Auburn heavy scoring outputs from experienced options. There’s a lot to like about the Tigers’ roster, but there is also a never-ending list of unknowns surrounding this team as well.

 

Second Weekend Contenders:

22. Vanderbilt Commodores - SEC at-large: Mark Byington had a great first season at Vanderbilt, and Byington’s year two Commodores squad has even more talent to continue the momentum. Devin McGlockton, Tyler Nickel and Tyler Tanner are all returning and are joined by eight four-star transfers. Vanderbilt might not have a superstar on its roster, but this team has incredible depth and experience.

 

23. Creighton Bluejays - Big East at-large: Ryan Kalkbrenner may be gone, but Creighton brought in former B1G Freshman of the Year Owen Freeman from Iowa to seamlessly transition to a new era of Bluejays basketball. Greg McDermott is surrounding Freeman with what should be one of the best three-point shooting rosters in the country, and that formula will help Creighton compete atop the Big East once again.

 

24. Wisconsin Badgers - Big Ten at-large: Wisconsin might not have a transfer capable of having the impact John Tonje had on last year’s Badgers squad, but this year’s transfer class has plenty of versatility and experience. Mix in the chances of John Blackwell and Nolan Winter taking an extra jump forward this year and Wisconsin has a lot to look forward to this season.

 

25. Oregon Ducks - Big Ten at-large: The Ducks have one of the best returning cores in the country, headlined by Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle. Devon Pryor, TK Simpkins and Sean Stewart are all solid transfer additions that should lead an experienced Oregon roster to another year well within the top half of the Big Ten standings.

 

26. Kansas Jayhawks - Big 12 at-large: Kansas brought in Jayden Dawson, Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. from the transfer portal to help add experience to a backcourt that really struggled to find consistent scoring last season. Darryn Peterson is one of the big three recruits this season, and although the Jayhawks are ranked the lowest out of any teams (BYU and Duke are the other two) that added a member of that big three, there’s enough talent on this roster to find some success.

 

27. Gonzaga Bulldogs - WCC autobid: Tyon Grant-Foster’s status is still up in the air, and although the Bulldogs would likely win an appeal to give Grant-Foster an extra year of eligibility, the uncertainty dropped this team a considerable number of spots in my rankings. My original ranking for Gonzaga was within the top 20, but this team needs to be at full strength to reach that level. 

 

28. North Carolina Tar Heels - ACC at-large: Hubert Davis will be replacing a ton of talent, as everyone in the Tar Heels’ entire rotation from last season not named Seth Trimble left through one avenue or another in the offseason. UNC brought in three top-60 high school recruits and five high-impact transfers to replace that talent, but there’s no reason to believe North Carolina will be significantly better than last season until this team steps on the court.

 

29. USC Trojans - Big Ten at-large: If you can find a team that brought in more overall experience and talent from the transfer portal this season than USC did, you might be dreaming. Rodney Rice, Chad Baker-Mazara, Ezra Ausar, Gabe Dynes, Jacob Cofie, Amarion Dickerson, Jaden Brownell, Jordan Marsh and EJ Neal Jr. (told you they have a lot of transfers) are all ready to make an impact on this Trojans roster, and even though continuity is a massive problem for this squad, USC should have enough raw talent to overcome that potential issue.

 

30. Ohio State Buckeyes - Big Ten at-large: Ohio State added three bigs in the transfer portal, and an additional freshman big as well. If those four produce, the Buckeyes have more than enough guard play with the lethal duo of Bruce Thornton and John Mobley leading the way.

 

31. Mississippi State Bulldogs - SEC at-large: The Bulldogs have five great transfers and four four-star freshmen joining Josh Hubbard, who should be an All-SEC First Team player this season. Mississippi State should have plenty more scoring around Hubbard this season and should finish in the middle of the SEC standings.

 

32. Indiana Hoosiers - Big Ten at-large: Indiana has a new coach, Darian DeVries, at the helm, and he is bringing a plethora of transfers with him to Bloomington. The Hoosiers have a great mix of talent across the ten transfers they are bringing in, and with a top-ten transfer portal class overall, there is a rightful amount of excitement within the Indiana fan base about the potential of this team.

 

33. Iowa Hawkeyes - Big Ten at-large: Drake, is this you? Predictably, Ben McCollum will attempt to replicate his success at Drake last season by bringing five players from his 31-4 NCAA Tournament team with him to Iowa City. The Hawkeyes also added Brendan Hausen, Alvaro Folgueiras and Isaiah Johnson-Arigu to form what will likely be the bulk of Iowa’s rotation this season. Based on their performance in the NCAA Tournament, Bennett Stirtz and Co. seem more than ready to make the leap to major-conference action.

 

34. Cincinnati Bearcats - Big 12 at-large: Cincinnati did not live up to the preseason hype last year, and that could be why this Bearcats roster hasn’t been talked about too much. But Cincinnati is experienced, talented and has length at every position. It feels like a make-or-break year for Wes Miller’s team, but Miller has assembled enough talent to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.

 

35. Miami (FL) Hurricanes - ACC at-large: Speaking of new coaches and massive transfer portal classes, the Hurricanes are bringing in 13 (yes, you read that right) new players for Jai Lucas’ first year at the helm. Miami has six transfers and seven freshmen, and this team will be a great case study for how a team performs when none of its players (or coaches) have any established chemistry.

 

Good, but bubbly:

36. Ole Miss Rebels - SEC at-large (Last Four Byes): Chris Beard led the Rebels to the program’s second Sweet Sixteen appearance ever last season. Ole Miss doesn’t look as threatening as the end result from last season, but another NCAA Tournament appearance should be well within reach.

 

37. Texas A&M Aggies - SEC at-large (Last Four Byes): Texas A&M has plenty of new faces, but Bucky McMillan’s first squad in College Station has a top-20 transfer class and looks promising.

 

38. Marquette Golden Eagles - Big East at-large (Last Four Byes): This projection is way lower than Marquette typically ends up, but the Golden Eagles don’t have enough talent to warrant a higher ranking.

 

39. Missouri Tigers - SEC at-large (Last Four Byes): A lot of Missouri’s talent left the program, heading in many different directions after the season, but the Tigers have built a solid product, and should be a factor in a crowded pack in the middle of the SEC standings.

 

40. Utah State Aggies - Mountain West autobid: Utah State is the first appearance in these rankings from a true mid-major program. The Aggies had a solid season last year and look poised for another good one in the 2025-26 season.

 

41. Baylor Bears - Big 12 at-large (Last Four In): Scott Drew will likely figure it out before the end of the season and this team will probably finish higher than the bubble, but the Bears hovered around this territory last season and ended up losing a lot of talent even after a somewhat disappointing season.

 

42. SMU Mustangs - ACC at-large (Last Four In): SMU fell apart at the end of last season, but the Mustangs were in the bubble discussion for most of the year. With a similar season in a much better overall ACC, the Mustangs will be in position to make the tournament.

 

43. San Diego State Aztecs - Mountain West at-large (Last Four In): San Diego State seems to always find its way into the tournament, usually well above where preseason expectations have it, but this Aztecs roster just doesn’t have as much proven production and talent as most of Brian Dutcher’s squads typically have.

 

44. Georgia Bulldogs - SEC at-large (Last Four In): Georgia made the NCAA Tournament last season, but the Bulldogs needed a sudden surge in the final few weeks of the year to get within dancing range. Enough players left Athens to cast some doubt on the 2025-26 edition of Georgia basketball, but the Bulldogs should be very competitive again.

 

45. Texas Longhorns - First Four Out: The outlook for Sean Miller’s first year in Austin feels completely muddy, but the Longhorns have more than enough talent to land somewhere on the bubble, and if things go right, Texas will make the tournament.

 

46. Virginia Cavaliers - First Four Out: Virginia ended up with a lost season last year, but that gives the Cavaliers a golden opportunity to shock the college basketball world with a productive year. Virginia won’t end up as a protected seed like it has in years past, but the Cavaliers should end up somewhere in tournament contention.

 

47. Washington Huskies - First Four Out: Washington has struggled to find any footing as a program recently, but this Huskies roster could be the one to break through. Washington is one of many teams in the middle of the Big Ten standings that has plenty of potential mixed with many unknowns, but a Huskies tournament appearance is definitely in the realm of possibility.

 

48. Boise State Broncos - First Four Out: Boise State missed the Big Dance for the first time since 2021 last season, but the Broncos clearly have a roster competitive enough to start a new NCAA Tournament streak.

 

Bubble Wild Cards:

49. Clemson Tigers - Next Four Out

50. Providence Friars - Next Four Out

51. Oklahoma Sooners - Next Four Out

52. Villanova Wildcats - Next Four Out

53. Syracuse Orange - In Consideration

54. Nebraska Cornhuskers - In Consideration

55. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - In Consideration

56. USF Bulls - In Consideration

57. UCF Knights - In Consideration

58. Georgetown Hoyas - In Consideration

59. Saint Mary’s Gaels - In Consideration

60. Maryland Terrapins - In Consideration